Following the submission of the Cabinet evaluation results to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, some political pundits expressed their pessimism that the evaluation would prompt the President to carry out a significant overhaul of his Cabinet, despite apparent dissatisfaction on ministers' performances.
“I am sure that the President won't undergo a major reshuffle. He still needs support from political parties,” Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) senior researcher Burhanuddin Mukhtadi told The Jakarta Post on Friday.
Burhanuddin pointed out Yudhoyono would likely take into account recent developments before making any shakedown, including the fresh ruling issued by the Constitutional Court on a clause in the 2009 Law on the People's Consultatives Assembly, Regional Representatives Councils and the Regional Legislative Councils that paves the way for lawmakers to impeach a president.
Burhanuddin said that Yudhoyono would avoid any moves that may irk the political parties including the replacement of the ministers who are mostly cadres from the parties.
“A Cabinet shakedown will certainly make the political parties unhappy,” he said.
He also suggested that Yudhoyono might consider a fresh statement from Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri before making any reshuffle.
“Megawati has said that the party would not join the coalition with the government,” Burhanuddin said.
On Thursday, top presidential aide Kuntoro Mangkusubroto said he had submitted the Cabinet evaluation result to the President. Two of four ministers in the Cabinet were given “red marks”, Kuntoro said.
Yudhoyono's Cabinet consists of 35 ministers, more than half of them come from the coalition parties. Rumors of a major shakedown surfaced following rising tension in the ruling coalion amid boiling rivalry between the Golkar Party and Yudhoyono's Democratic Party over some contentious issues, including the special status of Yogyakarta.
Siti Zuhro, an expert on regional autonomy with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said that right now Yudhoyono was in an unfavorable position.
“The fact that most ministers who belong to political parties have set their own agendas makes it difficult for Yudhoyono to control his Cabinet. It is difficult for Yudhoyono to ensure commitment from the ministers in carrying out the development programs,” she said.
Yudhoyono, she added, would likely prefer to maintain good relations with political parties rather than spoil them.
“The peaceful relationship sometimes spells status quo,” she said.
Concurring with Siti Zuhro, Burhanuddin lamented minimal progress has been undertaken by the Cabinet.
“You can see there has been no progress on micro economic sectors, for instance. Since most ministers are from political parties, and they have no capabilities to handle their respective fields,” he said.
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